One Place Left

Well. South Africa can never resist a good choke. Best not to dwell on it. But that’s what it was. Against an ordinary attack, for Kallis, de Villiers and Duminy to throw away their wickets as they did was nothing less than a choke. AB de Villiers getting run out with the asking rate at 4.5? Ridiculous.

Give New Zealand their dues, Jesse Ryder made sure they reached a defendable total, Nathan McCullum bowled extremely well, and they were superb in the field. The result? A place in the semi-finals against England or Sri Lanka. Some disrespect to New Zealand, but those two teams will be glad to see the back of the Proteas from that side of the draw. How will they deal with each other?

England have played some truly dreadful cricket in this World Cup, but I don’t expect that to trouble them too much in the knockouts. They’re a successful enough team to know that when they’re given a chance, they have to take it, and that’s exactly what they’ll aim for. There have been bright spots in the campaign – Andrew Strauss’s magnificent 158 against India, Swann and Broad’s demolition of the South African middle and lower order to snatch a victory, and Jonathan Trott generally keeping the team alive with consistent performances. In spite of these, however, they just don’t look to have a team that can go the whole way. Tim Bresnan has had good days, but Jimmy Anderson has been awful, and with Stuart Broad and Ajmal Shahzad gone home, their pace bowling is in unknown territory. James Tredwell had a great game against the West Indies, but just how he’ll deal with Tillakaratne Dilshan and Kumar Sangakkara is a different matter. Graeme Swann will of course be the key, and I expect him to be up to the challenge. The question is, will his teammates give him the support to make it worthwhile?

We believe that Ian Bell has been promoted to open the batting alongside his captain in place of the unimpressive Matt Prior. Bell is as elegant a batsman as has played for England since David Gower, and yet he manages to get out too often for stylish 30s. He hasn’t contributed in a meaningful way in this World Cup yet, and facing the vicious slingers from Lasith Malinga alongside Nuwan Kulasekera’s stingy line-and-length balls isn’t going to make it any easier.

Andrew Strauss needs to front up. Aside from the innings against India, he hasn’t done enough. He leads best from the front, and he knows the pressure’s on. If Malinga is offline, as he can be, Strauss will punish him, but come what may, he needs to be sure that he can last 20 or 30 overs, and build a solid platform for his team.

Once given that platform, Ravi Bopara and Eoin Morgan will be waiting. Both have played important innings in this tournament already, and they will be crucial to England’s hopes. At least one of them needs to be at the crease for the batting powerplay, and at least one of them needs to be there at its conclusion as well. They have the ability to turn 230 into 270, and that’s what will make the difference if Sri Lanka have to rely on a somewhat wobbly lower-middle order in a chase. It looks like Luke Wright will get a game as well, but as far as I’m concerned that’s a waste of a spot. He won’t last against Murali with the bat, and he’ll get carted around with the ball.

Sri Lanka played mostly very good cricket in the group stages. They lost to a very good Pakistan performance, with the main worry being how the middle order would cope with a top order failure. This was somewhat eased in the no-result game against the Aussies, where Thilan Samaraweera, better known for his test batting, produced a very calm and collected innings which set his team up for a total of around 260, which obviously never materialized. Dilshan has been productive, making a couple of 50s and a magnificent hundred to boot. Upul Tharanga has looked good at the top, providing a certain amount of calm to balance the frenetic Dilshan, albeit scoring at a very healthy rate. Once you get the two of them, all you have to deal with is Kumar Sangakkara, aided and abetted by Mahela Jayawardene. Sangakkara has been brilliant so far, finally getting his elusive hundred in the last game. Mahela has been quite quiet after his opening ton, but he’s a big-game player, and expect him to do the job if the scoreboard read 20-2.

Angelo Mathews is already an important player for Sri Lanka, and that will only increase in the years to come. He’s an excellent fielder, and has bowled well in this World Cup. He hasn’t delivered a memorable performance with the bat yet, but he does fulfil the Eoin Morgan role for Sri Lanka. He’ll need to produce a crucial innings if Sri Lanka are to win this World Cup, and where better to begin than tomorrow.

If aspects of their batting are a concern, there is little to trouble Sri Lanka in their attack. They have Lasith Malinga, the toe-crusher extraodinaire. Yes, he can bowl a few “5 wides”, but that’s little consolation when he’s just killed three of your team-mates. They have Muttiah Muralitharan, who’s taken 7 trillion wickets worldwide, and isn’t too generous with the run-rate either. Ajantha Mendis may not be the mystery man he was in the 2009 T20, but he still has enough to bamboozle some of the spin-fearing Englishmen. I personally love watching the oft-unmentioned Nuwan Kulasekara – a couple of years ago he was the number one ranked ODI bowler in the world, and he bowls with an unerring accuracy and consistency that made him truly worthy of that moniker. With Kulaskeara staunching the flow at one end, it makes Malinga and even tougher proposition at the other.

As I said at the top, whoever emerges victorious from this match will fancy their chance against New Zealand, who have made the road to Mumbai a little easier. That said, neither the quarter nor the semi will be a cakewalk, and both these teams will need their whole team to be on form to record a win – neither has India’s luxury of 27 batsmen. I really can’t see England winning – even aside from the poor form, I don’t think that their batsmen have the class to manage Maling in the powerplays and Murali in the middle, and their bowling injuries have left them with an attack which, aside from Graeme Swann, shouldn’t cause too much trouble to the Sri Lankan top 4.

I’m sticking with Sri Lanka to win the tournament outright, and I’m confident they’ll take the next step tomorrow in Colombo.

World Cup: Team By Team

India - Where better to start than with the hosts and favourites? They've got an endless batting line-up. Actually, it might end with Yusuf Pathan, because there are often no survivors. In Zaheer Khan, they have a man who's led lower bowlers to triumph before, and Munaf Patel and Sreesanth could well be those bowlers. Harbhajan Singh is world class. They have part-time spinners all over the park. A good captain in MS Dhoni. Virat Kohli is fast becoming my favourite player to watch. They've got it all. And yet....it's too much of a fairytale.

Prediction - Who would not love to see a Sri Lanka - India final? I think they will make the final, but I'll only give them a runners-up spot.

South Africa - The bottlers supreme. Their batting line-up looked shy and their tail pretty long against India, but Jacques Kallis back should make a difference in balance. With Hashim Amla at the top, you can nearly give them a 50-run lead. Will Johan Botha do the business with JP Duminy alongside him? They have a team of fantastic players - De Villiers can kill off a game when required, and Dale Steyn is the best bowler in the world. For a long time I've said they'll win this, but they really need every man in the team to perform, and I'm not sure that'll happen 3 games running.

Prediction - Semi-finals, maybe runners up.

Australia - They've won the last 3 - that's a good start. On the other hand, Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Hussey....etc aren't here. Ponting's hit a couple of 50s in the warm-up, and they beat a poor England 6-1, but I don't know. They've drawn the easier group - Canada instead of Ireland, New Zealand and Pakistan instead of South Africa and England, but I still think they'll have it tough. They should still make it through without too many problems, and from there on in it's a shootout. I don't think they have the bowlers - Lee did it for them Down Under - India's a different kettle of fish. Jason Krejza, well, good luck.

Prediction - Quarter-final exit.

New Zealand – They have a history of performing well in the big tournaments, and while they should make it to the quarters, they don’t have a the class to compete. Brendon McCullum’s IPL pedigree will serve them well, and in Ross Taylor and Martin Guptill they have two very fine batsmen, but I can’t see them troubling the big teams. They’re too close to a batting collapse, even with the experience of Scott Styris and Jacob Oram in as props. Daniel Vettori is a world-class spinner, but he can’t do it all on his own, and there are a couple of untested young men in the attack who could be taken to the cleaners.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit, but watch Martin Guptill make some runs first – he’s one for the future.

Sri Lanka - Here we go. Tilikaratne Dilshan and Upul Tharanga to open. Sangakkara at 3. Mahela at 4. Samarweera at 5 before maybe Matthews at 6. That all adds up to a million runs - who's going to defend them? Only a man with 590-odd ODI wickets and the most terrifying paceman you can see coming at you. How can Lasith Malinga work? No one really knows - he shouldn't be hitting line and length but he does. 4 wickets in 4 balls 4 years ago - I smell a hat-trick again. This is a truly class team. They showed great composure chasing the West Indies' total of 280 in the warm-up, after bowling well to keep them to that number. Sangakkara is a canny captain with a great team behind him.

Prediction - Blasted away from victory last year by Adam Gilchrist, I see them going one better here. 15 years on from their last triumph, the last team to win it before Australia are set to do it again. Champions.

Pakistan – It’s foolish to write them off – they can win anything from a standing start. They actually have some ok form coming into this, and plenty of players have put their hands up. Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammed Hafeez are an exciting opening pair, and Hafeez has shown himself to be a very useful second spinner behind Saeed Ajmal. Shoaib Akhtar is bowling well, as is Wahab Riaz, and Umar Gul could get into any ODI side he wanted. Misbah-ul-Haq has faced down his critics by producing some lovely ODI innings recently, including a run-a-ball century against Bangladesh in the warm-ups. If he can hold down one end and allow Afridi and Razzaq to tee off from the other side there could be some big scores. The big question marks are over the Akmal brothers – Umar Akmal’s stunning start to his career has ground to a halt – he needs to build a couple of innings to get his confidence back – and Kamran needs some runs now he’s taken the gloves back from the third brother, Adnan.

Prediction: Realistically need a top-two finish in the group to avoid India and South Africa in the quarters, but I think they’ll manage that ahead of Australia. Semi-finalists, and from there, who knows?

England - I'm sure I'll get flak for this, but they're not a great ODI side. People brushed aside the 6-1 to Australia, and fair enough, but the focus was on the absentee bowlers. The problem was the misfiring batsmen. KP must perform, as must Strauss. Trott must speed up. Prior must get runs. The opening partnership has changed again, with KP promoted. Will it work better than the last 20? Who knows? Without Eoin Morgan, the team lacks the innovation required to win this tournament. Collingwood, Bopara and Yardy aren't going to finish a game like the Irishman. England need more planning for this, starting with bringing Alistair Cook into the ODI game. Do they not watch him for Essex?

Prediction - Quarter-final Exit.

Bangladesh – A lot has been made of this team, and not without cause. Shakib al-Hasan has prove himself to be able to manage the captaincy alongside being a key with both bat and ball. Tamim Iqbal is one of the best openers in ODI cricket. Mahmudullah, Mushfiqur Rahim Juanid SIddique and more runs to a solid batting line-up, and with several solid spinners in the team they can cause trouble to any batting line-up. They’re most often criticized for a lack of a good pace attack – this should be less important in the subcontinent, although Rubel Hossain showed some good form against Pakistan in the warm-up.

Prediction – Expect some upsets from this still very young team. I have a sneaky feeling that they’ll qualify from the group stages, but that could leave them facing Sri Lanka in the quarters, which is where, for me, they bow out.

West Indies – Where to start? What a frustrating team. Chris Gayle, Shiv Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo, Kieron Pollard, Darren Sammy. That’s a team that should produce fireworks every time it goes out. Unfortunately, 50% of the time it’s a damp squib. They are undoubtedly going to have some big performances, led by the big man himself, but that’s the problem. Get Chris Gayle out early, and you should win. Against Sri Lanka in the warm-up, Gayle fell after a quick 50 and the run rate plummeted. Pollard’s job is to provide a flurry at the end, but that’s not such an easy task if the score’s 100 for 5. The bowlers are interesting – Sammy and Kemar Roach are a pair I’d like to see open, but I just don’t think that Nikita Millar and Sulieman Benn are penetrative enough in India. To be fair to him, Benn took 3 and only gave 4 an over to Sri Lanka, but he doesn’t have the consistency.

Prediction – I think they’ll beat England in the group stage, but still fail to qualify. If Gayle can be knocked over early, Bangladesh and Ireland have a great chance of taking the Caribbean scalp.

Ireland – Expect this preview to be heaped full of bias. Ireland are a very good team. They played a couple of very solid warm-up games, including a victory over Zimbabwe without using captain William Porterfield and Sussex opener Ed Joyce, arguably their two best batsmen. Kevin O’Brien showed great maturity alongside old hand Andre Botha in rebuilding after early wickets. Historically, the batting has been our problem – suddenly there are quite a few men with form. With Joyce at 3, we then have to choose from Botha, the O’Brien boys, Gary Wilson, Andrew White, Alex Cusack and John Mooney for our next four. Boyd Rankin and the ever-reliable Trent Johnston are a solid opening pair, and young George Dockrell has bowled tidily if not brilliantly so far. The main problem against Zimbabwe was conceding a huge number of runs off the last 10 overs – our death bowling has never been strong, and that’s where Trent needs a good partner once the Batting Powerplay is taken.

Prediction – Getting out of the group is a huge task – I expect a thumping from South Africa and India, but every other team is beatable. I would expect them to win maybe two games, but to get all the results to get through in such a short space might just prove too much. But I’m not going to type a nailed-on prediction…..

And Then There Were Four

The World T20 has never been a tournament to shirk its share of surprises, and the 2010 edition is no different. Pakistan, despite playing some simply awful cricket, have once again managed to sneak through to the semi-finals and, given their history, they might just move into top gear now.

Sri Lanka also managed to twice overcome a nervy group stage to make it to consecutive semi-finals.

But there can be no doubt about the two most consistent teams this year. Australia have finally managed to figure out T20, and look the finished article these last two weeks. Who's the other? Consistent? That's right, it's England. After tinkering with their T20 line-up incessantly, they have found an opening pair they like, a middle order that carries them through, and an attack which has delivered the goods. And much as it pains me to say it, a lot of it seems to come down to Dublin boy Eoin Morgan.

At 23, Morgan is still a young cricketer, but he's fast becoming England's best T20 player. Top batsman for them so far this tournament, he's dug them out of a couple of holes this year, not least against his former teammates. It's not enough to say he plays shots all round the ground - he plays shots all round his bat - it's like a mixture of cricket, hurling, baseball, and high-speed golf. He's got a cool head when wickets fall early, and is happy to build a platform until the last 4 or 5 overs where he can unleash the power.

Paul Collingwood is the one batsman who hasn't fired yet for England, and while he'll need to change that for the semi-final, you can be sure that the England skipper is relieved he's got Morgan backing him up at No. 5.

I only have one problem with England. Their bowlers have done well. No doubt about it. Tim Bresnan has bowled economically, and Graeme Swann has taken his usual plethora of wickets. Sticking with Ryan Sidebottom hasn't cost them yet. But where do they go when things go wrong? So far, they haven't. But they've stuck to their 5 main bowlers each time. Collingwood hasn't given himself a bowl, nor Luke Wright. What happens if, against Sri Lanka, Sidebottom gets pasted for 30 off two overs, and someone needs to take care of Dilshan? It's not the easiest time to throw the ball to Wright and tell him to open his account. The other teams in the semis have used 6, 7, 8 bowlers in some games. T20 is about mixing up your attack, bowling some one-over spells. Collingwood is an invaluable bowler in the short format, but he needs to be in the zone for it. So far England have managed to curtail the batting of every team they've faced, but Sri Lanka, and even more so Australia, could be a different kettle of fish. As Sri Lanka will tell you, it's not enough to have Australia 5 down; Hussey and Haddin are only too glad to put on 80 or 90.

Sri Lanka have disappointed me. My pick from the start of the tournament, they've been over-reliant on Mahela Jayawardene and Lasith Malinga. Their final match was particularly important in that respect - Jayawardene didn't fire, and Dilshan, Sangakkara, Mathews, and Kapugedera did the business. Previously, their bowlers had dried up a formidable Indian run rate. That match could be the turning point for them, particularly if Dilshan continues his form. England have been good so far, but it's been relatively by the book. Sri Lanka can throw some odd things at you, and Colly will need to keep his nerve and composure if they get off to a fast start.

As for Australia-Pakistan, surely it can only go one way. Australia's fast bowling has been frightening - Nannes, Tait and Johnson have picked up 29 wickets between them in 5 matches. Their batting is so deep - after the power-hitting of Warner and Watson you've got White, Clarke, Haddin, and a couple of Husseys. Even after that you've got Johnson and Smith. Pakistan on the other hand, have inconsistent bowling, failing batsmen, and sloppy fielding. On that basis, I'm going for Pakistan. That seems to be the way it works - Afridi'll decided to get serious, take 3-12, and score a brisk 60 of 30 balls. They've got the talent, they just have to use it.

It could be an Ashes final - that's what the form-book says. But the form-book goes out the window where Pakistan are involved - you can be sure Shahid Afridi's written his own script.