Friday, December 25, 2009

Pressure Mounting

How many times do we hear that a match has saved Test cricket? After the thrilling climax to the 1st Test at Centurion Park last weekend, writers were singing the praises of the longer format and saying that they never doubted its value. Clearly they weren't bashing their heads off the wall for most of the rest of the match as play crawled along at 2 runs an over for what seemed like an eternity. I'm never going to be the man to call for an end to 5-day matches, but let's face it - a decent spell against an English tail isn't going to send T20 packing.

But that's a story for another day...

Let's stick to the series we've got here. It was a dull match until Friedel de Wet came along on Sunday afternoon and gave Graeme Smith hope of pulling off a famous victory. Despite the debutant's heroics, he looks unlikely to feature in tomorrow's starting line-up. If Dale Steyn is returned to full fitness, it's going to be the young man to miss out. Makhaya Ntini, veteran of 100 tests, looks set to hold on to his place. Experience is valuable, but with Jacques Kallis appearing fit to bowl again I'm surprised the selectors have felt the need to hold on to Ntini. I hope there's more than sentimentality behind it, because he was of little use in England's second innings in Cape Town.
However, the return of Kallis certainly makes any South African attack look more balanced. He'll be there to dry up the runs in the middle overs, put pressure on the batsmen, and either lead to wickets falling or take them himself. Paul Harris bowled decently last match, and JP Duminy deserves to be called more than just a part-timer. If Steyn has his full pace with him, England could be in for a rough ride.

England plan to stick with their line-up, meaning a four-man attack and a place for Ian Bell, with Luke Wright missing out again. Bell looked as faltering as ever last match, with his 1st innings dismissal a particularly embarrassing memory as he left a straight ball to crash into middle and off. He's been given yet another chance, and to be fair, Wright isn't exactly the ideal substitute. If Bell plays well he'll score runs and stay at the crease - if Wright bats well he'll probably make a quick 40 and depart. But you get the feeling that England could use another option in the bowling department. Wright may not be the best bowler in the game, but at least he's another man. Even if he goes for a few runs, the South Africans will be getting more variations and will have to play different balls. Smith didn't fire last game, but all that means is that he probably will now, and with a batting line-up of Smith, Prince, Amla, Kallis, De Villiers, Duminy and Boucher you need plenty of wickets.

A word on Amla - he got a lot of stick from a lot of people, and he answered them in the best way possible. When Jacques Kallis fell on Saturday morning, things looked pretty bad for the hosts - would Graeme Swann's magnificent knock the night before turn the game totally on its head? Amla batted calmly and confidently, mixing beautiful shots to the boundary with intelligent defence. He deserves his place in that line-up and, at No. 3, showed himself capable of steadying a wobbling innings.

Kevin Pietersen returned to the Test arena with an excellent innings of 80-odd before taking on a non-existent single. These things happen, but Andy Flower will be delighted to see the big man back on form. He wants centuries in South Africa as much as his rivals want his wicket, and it should make for some exciting battles.

The first match redeemed itself somewhat with some late de Wet magic, but that didn't disguise it as good entertainment for five days. The pressure's building on South Africa as the home side to take a lead in this series, while England will feel that Onions and Collingwood tipped the momentum their way by hanging on grimly. Let's hope for some fireworks at Durban.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Now Is The Winter Of Our...Content?...Discontent?

England are playing cricket. What on earth is going to happen?

As eagerly anticipated as the Ashes, England's tour of South Africa sees Kevin Pietersen's return to test cricket, and to South Africa, alongside fellow countryman Jonathan Trott. It sees South Africa bidding to retake the No. 1 ranking having lost it to India in November. It sees Andrew Strauss take on the best opposition of his captaincy.

England play a topsy-turvy game. In the ODI series, we saw that this could mean a 7-wicket win followed by a 100-run defeat. In a test match, all the swings can happen in the one game. In 2009, we've seen England bat scores of 600 and be dismissed for 52. They've bowled Australia out for 160 and let the West Indies rack up 700. You never know what you're going to get with England, and while agonizing for the Barmy Army, it always provides entertainment to the neutrals.

England's bowling attack has performed well this year, but is still missing that one danger- man. I don't know who he is, because he might not exist. They don't have a Dale Steyn, a Brett Lee, a Fidel Edwards. They don't have that man who will make even the best batsmen quake in the first 15 overs. James Anderson is a very good bowler, and can bowl excellent economic spells. He can take wickets, and is a decent leader of the attack. But he's a fast-medium bowler. As is Stuart Broad. As is Graham Onions. Broad can bowl great spells - we saw that at the Oval this August - but he's not a man you want running in and bouncing short balls at the batsmen. He'll be taken apart. Sajid Mahmood was included in the ODI squad - maybe he needs to be worked on to become a test bowler - he has genuine pace.
England's bowlers, I have no doubt, will take wickets in this series, and will bowl good spells, but you just get the feeling that if Graeme Smith and AB de Villiers are on a 100-run partnership and facing Broad and Wright that they'll take them to town.

What of the batsmen? On paper, Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Collingwood, Prior, Wright, Broad, Swann - it's a good, strong, long batting line-up. But I predict - and it's a nasty prediction - that if England bat 8 innings this tour, Cook will be dismissed for less than 15 in at least three of them. In which case, Trott is your opener - maybe he can deal with it, but it's a different role.
KP will deliver some fine innings in the series, but he's still making his first test appearance in some time, and every bowler in the South African team wants his scalp more than anyone else's. It's vital that Strauss does what he did in the Ashes and leads from the front - England more than any other team take such great heart from his good starts, and you get the feeling that he's going to need a few tons if England are to have a chance of victory.
I can't get past the belief that Luke Wright is a major weak link - if the team's on a score of 350 when he comes in he might well make a quick 30 or 40 runs to boost the total, but he's not the man to rescue you when you're in trouble - in England are languishing on 180-4/5 you need a guy who can steady things down and bat through a session. Wright isn't that player. He's shown promise in the shorter format but I just don't think he's ready for Test - I think his batting will be exposed and his bowling preyed upon.

South Africa have had good news in that Jacques Kallis will play in the opening test. However, his role will be limited to batting, and the Proteas arguably would miss his prowess with the ball to a greater extent. In the same way that Collingwood will temper the English attack with economical and often wicket-taking spells, so Kallis steadies the South Africans. Steyn and Morkel will power in and deliver some frightening pace to the English, but if they start to go awry the English batsmen can fill their boots, and you need a miserly bowler to dry up the runs. Without Kallis, the South African bowlers could be either brilliant or distinctly lacking, and hopefully we'll see the big man fully fit in time for the second match.
South Africa's batting is superb - Ashwell Prince makes a return to the team for the Centurion match to open alongside the simply awesome Graeme Smith - those two are well capable of setting up a score of 280-0. Add AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla, JP Duminy and Mark Boucher to the team and you just sigh with pleasure.
Makhaya Ntini returns to make his 100th Test appearance for the home team, and perhaps he can keep the runs away from Cook long enough to pressure him into falling to Steyn at the other end.

England are unpredictable. So, in a way, are South Africa, particularly without Kallis holding the ball. However, I can't see England threatening to take the series, and if they got out of it at 1-1 they'd be over the moon. I'm going to go for a 2-0 win to South Africa over the four games; I think England will bat long enough to draw at least one if not two games, but I think they'll always struggle to take 20 wickets.