Down to Business

A month on, and the World Cup is getting tense. No team has come through unscathed, but whatever happened before no longer matters. One team is three wins away from glory. Let's have a look at what they all face now.

The first quarter-final sees the two teams who do unpredictable best. We’ve seen Pakistan struggle to make it through the group stages in T20 World Cups, and then blaze through to the final and victory. West Indies can slump against any team in the world, or Chris Gayle can knock Brett Lee into next week. Their roads to the quarter-finals have been different – West Indies have failed to convince so far, managing to despatch the lesser teams of Group A, and failing to capitalize on a winning position against England, while Pakistan have played some excellent cricket, only coming unstuck against a ferocious Ross Taylor, and recording wins over Australia and Sri Lanka.

I didn’t think the Windies would make it this far, and now that they’re here, I’m going to send them out again. Yes, they can be inspired – a good start from Gayle can floor any opposition, and Kieron Pollard is as brutal as any with 5 overs to go. But if these men misfire – Gayle does frequently, and Pollard almost always – there’s not a lot to rely upon. Chanderpaul and Sarwan are looking tired and out of ideas, and young Darren Bravo, however much he might remind one of Brian Lara, hasn’t performed consistently after a solid opening knock.

Their bowlers are the real problem. Yes, Kemar Roach has had a great tournament, including a hat-trick, and Ravi Rampaul did well to take 5-for against India, but they look short of variety. Sulieman Benn has been found out by several teams, and if the pacemen get off to a poor start it’s a severe knock to the confidence. Darren Sammy has played a good captain’s role, taking wickets at crucial times, but he will need all his bowlers firing, even against the wobbly batting of Pakistan.

What of Pakistan? Once again, they’ve showed that they can pull out big performances when it matters. Victories over Australia and Sri Lanka, the finalists of 2007, in the group stage proved this once again. Although their batting has been questionable, with their top 3 failing, someone has always been ready to take up the mantle and play a guiding innings. Asad Shafiq, Misbah ul-Haq and, perhaps most crucially, talented young Umar Akmal have all provided important innings where required.

Pakistan’s bowling attack has of course been stripped of a couple of major players, for reasons known to the world and its mother, but they have continued to light up the limited overs game with their displays so far. Umar Gul and Shahid Afridi, heroes of ODI and T20 cricket for Pakistan, have continued their dominance, taking 30 wickets between them so far, and drying up the runs at the same time. It appears that Shoaib Akhtar might not play again, but despite some erratic bowling, he remains a trump card that can carve through a top order at any moment. Wahab Riaz was unimpressive against India, but he and Abdul Razzaq provide a solid back-up to Gul in the pace attack. Afridi has been the spinning star so far, but Abdur Rehman and Mohammed Hafeez have played important supporting roles, with Saeed Ajmal a very dangerous man waiting in the wings.

So what’s the verdict? As I said at the beginning, predicting a match between these two is nigh on impossible. Having said that, however, I’m going to stick with my pre-tournament prediction of Pakistan to make the semis. While both teams can implode, the West Indies are more reliant on certain players – if Gayle and Bravo don’t fire, I’m not convinced that the middle order can rebuild the innings, leaving Pollard most likely to last only a couple of massive swings before giving his wicket away. Pakistan, on the other hand, seem to be taking 15-2 as the natural starting point for an innings, and so the innings that Mohammed Hafeez will produce at some point will merely be a pleasant surprise.

The Pakistani bowlers have the ability to defend almost anything, while the Windies…don’t. I’d take Razzaq as a finisher in ODIs ahead of Pollard too.

If India knock out Australia in their semi-final, the winner of this will find it very difficult to progress to the final. India’s recent batting collapses notwithstanding, Pakistan might come up against a team their bowlers can’t scythe through. Bear in mind that those collapses left them with 265 and 296 – not tiny totals. Australia are certainly there for the taking, but I’d expect India to oblige before anyone else gets the chance. More on that tomorrow.

We’ve seen Pakistan do the unthinkable in the T20 World Cups – they’re a team for the big occasions. They have a least one more win in them this time round, and I think they’ll see off Darren Sammy’s men. Whatever the result though, the first quarter-final promises to be full of interest – I won’t promise any big runs or classy innings, but it won’t lack passion.

World Cup: Team By Team

India - Where better to start than with the hosts and favourites? They've got an endless batting line-up. Actually, it might end with Yusuf Pathan, because there are often no survivors. In Zaheer Khan, they have a man who's led lower bowlers to triumph before, and Munaf Patel and Sreesanth could well be those bowlers. Harbhajan Singh is world class. They have part-time spinners all over the park. A good captain in MS Dhoni. Virat Kohli is fast becoming my favourite player to watch. They've got it all. And yet....it's too much of a fairytale.

Prediction - Who would not love to see a Sri Lanka - India final? I think they will make the final, but I'll only give them a runners-up spot.

South Africa - The bottlers supreme. Their batting line-up looked shy and their tail pretty long against India, but Jacques Kallis back should make a difference in balance. With Hashim Amla at the top, you can nearly give them a 50-run lead. Will Johan Botha do the business with JP Duminy alongside him? They have a team of fantastic players - De Villiers can kill off a game when required, and Dale Steyn is the best bowler in the world. For a long time I've said they'll win this, but they really need every man in the team to perform, and I'm not sure that'll happen 3 games running.

Prediction - Semi-finals, maybe runners up.

Australia - They've won the last 3 - that's a good start. On the other hand, Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Hussey....etc aren't here. Ponting's hit a couple of 50s in the warm-up, and they beat a poor England 6-1, but I don't know. They've drawn the easier group - Canada instead of Ireland, New Zealand and Pakistan instead of South Africa and England, but I still think they'll have it tough. They should still make it through without too many problems, and from there on in it's a shootout. I don't think they have the bowlers - Lee did it for them Down Under - India's a different kettle of fish. Jason Krejza, well, good luck.

Prediction - Quarter-final exit.

New Zealand – They have a history of performing well in the big tournaments, and while they should make it to the quarters, they don’t have a the class to compete. Brendon McCullum’s IPL pedigree will serve them well, and in Ross Taylor and Martin Guptill they have two very fine batsmen, but I can’t see them troubling the big teams. They’re too close to a batting collapse, even with the experience of Scott Styris and Jacob Oram in as props. Daniel Vettori is a world-class spinner, but he can’t do it all on his own, and there are a couple of untested young men in the attack who could be taken to the cleaners.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit, but watch Martin Guptill make some runs first – he’s one for the future.

Sri Lanka - Here we go. Tilikaratne Dilshan and Upul Tharanga to open. Sangakkara at 3. Mahela at 4. Samarweera at 5 before maybe Matthews at 6. That all adds up to a million runs - who's going to defend them? Only a man with 590-odd ODI wickets and the most terrifying paceman you can see coming at you. How can Lasith Malinga work? No one really knows - he shouldn't be hitting line and length but he does. 4 wickets in 4 balls 4 years ago - I smell a hat-trick again. This is a truly class team. They showed great composure chasing the West Indies' total of 280 in the warm-up, after bowling well to keep them to that number. Sangakkara is a canny captain with a great team behind him.

Prediction - Blasted away from victory last year by Adam Gilchrist, I see them going one better here. 15 years on from their last triumph, the last team to win it before Australia are set to do it again. Champions.

Pakistan – It’s foolish to write them off – they can win anything from a standing start. They actually have some ok form coming into this, and plenty of players have put their hands up. Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammed Hafeez are an exciting opening pair, and Hafeez has shown himself to be a very useful second spinner behind Saeed Ajmal. Shoaib Akhtar is bowling well, as is Wahab Riaz, and Umar Gul could get into any ODI side he wanted. Misbah-ul-Haq has faced down his critics by producing some lovely ODI innings recently, including a run-a-ball century against Bangladesh in the warm-ups. If he can hold down one end and allow Afridi and Razzaq to tee off from the other side there could be some big scores. The big question marks are over the Akmal brothers – Umar Akmal’s stunning start to his career has ground to a halt – he needs to build a couple of innings to get his confidence back – and Kamran needs some runs now he’s taken the gloves back from the third brother, Adnan.

Prediction: Realistically need a top-two finish in the group to avoid India and South Africa in the quarters, but I think they’ll manage that ahead of Australia. Semi-finalists, and from there, who knows?

England - I'm sure I'll get flak for this, but they're not a great ODI side. People brushed aside the 6-1 to Australia, and fair enough, but the focus was on the absentee bowlers. The problem was the misfiring batsmen. KP must perform, as must Strauss. Trott must speed up. Prior must get runs. The opening partnership has changed again, with KP promoted. Will it work better than the last 20? Who knows? Without Eoin Morgan, the team lacks the innovation required to win this tournament. Collingwood, Bopara and Yardy aren't going to finish a game like the Irishman. England need more planning for this, starting with bringing Alistair Cook into the ODI game. Do they not watch him for Essex?

Prediction - Quarter-final Exit.

Bangladesh – A lot has been made of this team, and not without cause. Shakib al-Hasan has prove himself to be able to manage the captaincy alongside being a key with both bat and ball. Tamim Iqbal is one of the best openers in ODI cricket. Mahmudullah, Mushfiqur Rahim Juanid SIddique and more runs to a solid batting line-up, and with several solid spinners in the team they can cause trouble to any batting line-up. They’re most often criticized for a lack of a good pace attack – this should be less important in the subcontinent, although Rubel Hossain showed some good form against Pakistan in the warm-up.

Prediction – Expect some upsets from this still very young team. I have a sneaky feeling that they’ll qualify from the group stages, but that could leave them facing Sri Lanka in the quarters, which is where, for me, they bow out.

West Indies – Where to start? What a frustrating team. Chris Gayle, Shiv Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo, Kieron Pollard, Darren Sammy. That’s a team that should produce fireworks every time it goes out. Unfortunately, 50% of the time it’s a damp squib. They are undoubtedly going to have some big performances, led by the big man himself, but that’s the problem. Get Chris Gayle out early, and you should win. Against Sri Lanka in the warm-up, Gayle fell after a quick 50 and the run rate plummeted. Pollard’s job is to provide a flurry at the end, but that’s not such an easy task if the score’s 100 for 5. The bowlers are interesting – Sammy and Kemar Roach are a pair I’d like to see open, but I just don’t think that Nikita Millar and Sulieman Benn are penetrative enough in India. To be fair to him, Benn took 3 and only gave 4 an over to Sri Lanka, but he doesn’t have the consistency.

Prediction – I think they’ll beat England in the group stage, but still fail to qualify. If Gayle can be knocked over early, Bangladesh and Ireland have a great chance of taking the Caribbean scalp.

Ireland – Expect this preview to be heaped full of bias. Ireland are a very good team. They played a couple of very solid warm-up games, including a victory over Zimbabwe without using captain William Porterfield and Sussex opener Ed Joyce, arguably their two best batsmen. Kevin O’Brien showed great maturity alongside old hand Andre Botha in rebuilding after early wickets. Historically, the batting has been our problem – suddenly there are quite a few men with form. With Joyce at 3, we then have to choose from Botha, the O’Brien boys, Gary Wilson, Andrew White, Alex Cusack and John Mooney for our next four. Boyd Rankin and the ever-reliable Trent Johnston are a solid opening pair, and young George Dockrell has bowled tidily if not brilliantly so far. The main problem against Zimbabwe was conceding a huge number of runs off the last 10 overs – our death bowling has never been strong, and that’s where Trent needs a good partner once the Batting Powerplay is taken.

Prediction – Getting out of the group is a huge task – I expect a thumping from South Africa and India, but every other team is beatable. I would expect them to win maybe two games, but to get all the results to get through in such a short space might just prove too much. But I’m not going to type a nailed-on prediction…..

On Top Of The World

So let's try and say it without the raised eyebrows, without that incredulous tone of voice, and perhaps most importantly of all, without the disbelieving nausea.

England are world champions.

Admittedly it's the T20 world cup and half their team is Japanese or something, but you can't take it away from them. I've already tried, and I got into trouble.

England were arguably the most consistent team throughout the whole tournament. They bowled well consistently, and they were never without a few batsmen who fired to get them the runs they needed. Oddly enough, the toughest their batsmen had it was against Ireland, where but for the Guyanan rain.....who knows?

They fielded fantastically over the fortnight, and having a captain like Paul Collingwood really gets a team going in the field - all it takes is one good catch and the whole team's buzzing.

England's top order may have failed at times, needing Eoin Morgan and Tim Bresnan to bail them out, but they never got skittled at the top. Michael Lumb and Craig Kieswetter always came out hitting, and even if they went early they'd got England off to a flyer.

England were the one team who looked happy chasing scores throughout the tournament, and you can put that down to Lumb, Kieswetter, and Pietersen getting them ahead of the rate quickly. Add in Morgan and Luke Wright as finishers and you've got a good line-up.

KP played some of the best cricket we've seen from him in quite some time, and you get the feeling he's ready to take that form into all forms of the game.

Australia were great throughout the whole tournament, but with the exception of Pakistan in the semis, they failed to be tested until they met England. Their batting strength is obvious - they bat to at least number 9, but perhaps this took a little pressure off the top order. Certainly Watson and Warner didn't do themselves justice, and captain Michael Clarke should get the boot - I think he's a wonderful cricketer, but it's not his game.

The Australian bowlers were fantastic - Nannes, Tait and Johnson is a frightening combination - but they didn't have enough to defend on that final day, and once Kieswetter and KP got into their stride they were tough to stop.

Going into the World T20 England's line-up looked strong. Coming out it looks even better. They've found an opening combo that suits, and don't expect them to tinker with it for a while. Their bowlers made good use of their variation, and bowled as the pitches required. Inspired in the field, they had the heart to win every game.

The most dangerous thing about England is that they now know how to take success - they file it away and build on it. Andy Flower has got a good mentality in that camp, and he'll be focussing minds on the Ashes this winter. Who knows how many players who contested that final will face off down under for the 1st test? It's a different game, but nothing beats confidence, and right now, England are flying high.

And Then There Were Four

The World T20 has never been a tournament to shirk its share of surprises, and the 2010 edition is no different. Pakistan, despite playing some simply awful cricket, have once again managed to sneak through to the semi-finals and, given their history, they might just move into top gear now.

Sri Lanka also managed to twice overcome a nervy group stage to make it to consecutive semi-finals.

But there can be no doubt about the two most consistent teams this year. Australia have finally managed to figure out T20, and look the finished article these last two weeks. Who's the other? Consistent? That's right, it's England. After tinkering with their T20 line-up incessantly, they have found an opening pair they like, a middle order that carries them through, and an attack which has delivered the goods. And much as it pains me to say it, a lot of it seems to come down to Dublin boy Eoin Morgan.

At 23, Morgan is still a young cricketer, but he's fast becoming England's best T20 player. Top batsman for them so far this tournament, he's dug them out of a couple of holes this year, not least against his former teammates. It's not enough to say he plays shots all round the ground - he plays shots all round his bat - it's like a mixture of cricket, hurling, baseball, and high-speed golf. He's got a cool head when wickets fall early, and is happy to build a platform until the last 4 or 5 overs where he can unleash the power.

Paul Collingwood is the one batsman who hasn't fired yet for England, and while he'll need to change that for the semi-final, you can be sure that the England skipper is relieved he's got Morgan backing him up at No. 5.

I only have one problem with England. Their bowlers have done well. No doubt about it. Tim Bresnan has bowled economically, and Graeme Swann has taken his usual plethora of wickets. Sticking with Ryan Sidebottom hasn't cost them yet. But where do they go when things go wrong? So far, they haven't. But they've stuck to their 5 main bowlers each time. Collingwood hasn't given himself a bowl, nor Luke Wright. What happens if, against Sri Lanka, Sidebottom gets pasted for 30 off two overs, and someone needs to take care of Dilshan? It's not the easiest time to throw the ball to Wright and tell him to open his account. The other teams in the semis have used 6, 7, 8 bowlers in some games. T20 is about mixing up your attack, bowling some one-over spells. Collingwood is an invaluable bowler in the short format, but he needs to be in the zone for it. So far England have managed to curtail the batting of every team they've faced, but Sri Lanka, and even more so Australia, could be a different kettle of fish. As Sri Lanka will tell you, it's not enough to have Australia 5 down; Hussey and Haddin are only too glad to put on 80 or 90.

Sri Lanka have disappointed me. My pick from the start of the tournament, they've been over-reliant on Mahela Jayawardene and Lasith Malinga. Their final match was particularly important in that respect - Jayawardene didn't fire, and Dilshan, Sangakkara, Mathews, and Kapugedera did the business. Previously, their bowlers had dried up a formidable Indian run rate. That match could be the turning point for them, particularly if Dilshan continues his form. England have been good so far, but it's been relatively by the book. Sri Lanka can throw some odd things at you, and Colly will need to keep his nerve and composure if they get off to a fast start.

As for Australia-Pakistan, surely it can only go one way. Australia's fast bowling has been frightening - Nannes, Tait and Johnson have picked up 29 wickets between them in 5 matches. Their batting is so deep - after the power-hitting of Warner and Watson you've got White, Clarke, Haddin, and a couple of Husseys. Even after that you've got Johnson and Smith. Pakistan on the other hand, have inconsistent bowling, failing batsmen, and sloppy fielding. On that basis, I'm going for Pakistan. That seems to be the way it works - Afridi'll decided to get serious, take 3-12, and score a brisk 60 of 30 balls. They've got the talent, they just have to use it.

It could be an Ashes final - that's what the form-book says. But the form-book goes out the window where Pakistan are involved - you can be sure Shahid Afridi's written his own script.

With Great Power Comes Great Inconsistency

What is it with Pakistani cricket?

When Pakistan are on their game, no cricket fan can help but enjoy watching them. They're capable of producing simply breath-taking performances when they're up against the wall (admittedly more in the shorter format). Just look at Shahid Afridi in the World T20 last year.

And yet, with great power comes great inconsistency. Maybe it's an artistic temperament. Whatever the explanation, the same team that overcame Sri Lanka last June might turn around and be skittled for 70 runs the next day. Umar Gul, after taking 4 for 15, might turn around and go wicketless for 50 runs.

Now I'm an Irish sports fan. I'm as used to a talented team blowing games, or an untalented team winning games as anyone. I've watched Holland knock us out of every football tournament in the 90s, and seen Padraig Harrington finish second 4 million times. I know frustration. But I've got to admit, the Pakistan Cricket Board has me on this one.

For a start, after the team lost 5-0 in Australia in the ODIs, after a disastrous Test series, the Board started to investigate whether there had been match-fixing involved. No, lads, youse were just rubbish. Nice as it would be to blame the dismal performance on greedy players and cunning gamblers, it was just some bad cricket against a superior team.

There were some highlights to the tour - Shahid Afridi giving the ball a couple of chomps while the 27 TV cameras watched him with interest.

But the PCB has gone further than anyone could have predicted, and for the players involved, it's not a laughing matter.

Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan, the in-fighting captaincy-swappers have both been handed indefinite bans from playing in any format, while Shoaib Malik (another stand-in captain and Naved-ul-Hasan have been banned for a year. Kamran and Umar Akmal have been fined and put on six-month probation, along with Boom-Boom Afridi himself.

This is by far the most drastic action taken by a national board in anyone's memory, and yet people are still scratching their heads a bit. Yousuf and Younis had some rough times as captains, no doubt, but this measure has effectively ended their careers - no one saw that coming. Kamran and Umar were both embroiled in controversy when the former lost his place in Sydney, and they can count themselves lucky with the bans. Or maybe, as a cynic like myself would suggest, the fact that they're two of the best batsmen in the team has helped them a little bit.

Pakistani cricket has never been a calm affair, nor has the captaincy ever been an easy job - when the Irish dumped them out of the 2007 World Cup Imzamam-ul-Haq was having effigies of himself burned back at home, and no one's still quite sure what happened to Bob Woolmer.

I haven't figured out if the PCB are to be applauded for this radical move or not - Pakistani cricket needs a fresh start alright, but with jester Afridi still around will that ever happen?

He can hit the ball a mile though.