Christmas Special

No cricket fan worth his salt wants to miss the St. Stephen's Day (yes) test at the MCG. Over the past couple of years, it might not have had the same fizz about it, given the circumstances of the series involved. This year, it cannot but entertain.

The series stands at 1-1, but even the most optimistic Aussies will know that they've only won four or five sessions in the first three tests. The English team still looks a more settled balanced unit. On the other hand, we've seen England self-destruct before, albeit more rarely these days.

So what do we have in store from 11pm tonight?

Ricky Ponting is good to play - whether a few Aussies will be wondering if this is a yea or nay is another matter. When you come down to it, no one really wants to see Michael Clarke captaining the team at this stage of an Ashes - except maybe Strauss and Flower. It's impossible to believe that Ponting won't have a good knock at some point in the series - the MCG faithful just have to hope that they can inspire that innings.

Mike Hussey has kept Australia in the series so far - with 517 runs, he looks in the form of his life. We always knew he loved a pressure situation (T20 semi-final 2010, the Oval - Ashes 2009), but without him we'd be staring an English whitewash in the face. Brad Haddin has given him decent support at number 7, and Watson has chipped in with a few useful runs, but Ponting and Clarke need a hundred between them in the 1st innings. Haddin really has to move ahead of Smith - he showed at Brisbane that he's not a pounder who comes in late - his century there was one of the most mature and calculated innings I've ever witnessed.

No one knows whether Mitchell Johnson will show up again, but for the sake of a spectacle, I hope he does. It was incredible to see him back, firing on all cylinders, and he's given the Aussies some chirpiness again. Before we forget though, he tore England apart at Headingley in 2009, before relapsing into torpor at the Oval.

The big question is over the spinner. My two cents - you CANNOT play Michael Beer. This guy, aside from having taken 7 first class wickets in his career, had never met half the team before last week. There'll be clamourings about the Oval in 2009, but that is a different matter. They left out a capped and, to a certain extent, proven spinner in Hauritz - Michael Beer? He's Xavier Doherty Mark II. Smith and Clarke may not be Warnes, but they'll give them something, and with Hilfenhaus keeping it tight at one end they should be able to build some pressure.

The English media have been trying to create a story over the pitch preparation, calling it a conspiracy. What? Since when has it not been OK for the hosts to prepare the tracks that suit them best. The dust bowl that was the Oval last time round suited Swann down to the ground - it's only natural that Cameron Hodgkins should prepare a pitch to follow the Perth success. It's not going to be as bouncy, but hopefully he can make it spicy enough to give the seamers something to think about.

As for England, they shouldn't be too worried. They know that they're still on top - aside from anything else, they still only need one more win to retain the urn. It looks like Finn might drop out - I think you have to bring in Shahzad - he's a bit of a liability as regards control, but so was Finn. He'll give you the potential of some reverse swing, and bowl some wicket deliveries. Bresnan is a solid bowler, and will give you control at one end, but England have to be aggressive, and Bresnan simply isn't the aggressive play.

It looks as though Paul Collingwood will retain his spot at number 5 - Eoin Morgan might feel aggrieved, but Colly will hang on because of his fielding and his usefulness as a 5th bowler. Despite not being given the ball all that much so far, they have him in reserve, and his lack of runs won't cost him his place before the end of the series.

Well, I just can't wait. There is no better Christmas Day than that which culminates in an Ashes test at the MCG, particularly in a series as nicely poised as this.

Happy Christmas

Now Is The Winter Of Our...Content?...Discontent?

England are playing cricket. What on earth is going to happen?

As eagerly anticipated as the Ashes, England's tour of South Africa sees Kevin Pietersen's return to test cricket, and to South Africa, alongside fellow countryman Jonathan Trott. It sees South Africa bidding to retake the No. 1 ranking having lost it to India in November. It sees Andrew Strauss take on the best opposition of his captaincy.

England play a topsy-turvy game. In the ODI series, we saw that this could mean a 7-wicket win followed by a 100-run defeat. In a test match, all the swings can happen in the one game. In 2009, we've seen England bat scores of 600 and be dismissed for 52. They've bowled Australia out for 160 and let the West Indies rack up 700. You never know what you're going to get with England, and while agonizing for the Barmy Army, it always provides entertainment to the neutrals.

England's bowling attack has performed well this year, but is still missing that one danger- man. I don't know who he is, because he might not exist. They don't have a Dale Steyn, a Brett Lee, a Fidel Edwards. They don't have that man who will make even the best batsmen quake in the first 15 overs. James Anderson is a very good bowler, and can bowl excellent economic spells. He can take wickets, and is a decent leader of the attack. But he's a fast-medium bowler. As is Stuart Broad. As is Graham Onions. Broad can bowl great spells - we saw that at the Oval this August - but he's not a man you want running in and bouncing short balls at the batsmen. He'll be taken apart. Sajid Mahmood was included in the ODI squad - maybe he needs to be worked on to become a test bowler - he has genuine pace.

England's bowlers, I have no doubt, will take wickets in this series, and will bowl good spells, but you just get the feeling that if Graeme Smith and AB de Villiers are on a 100-run partnership and facing Broad and Wright that they'll take them to town.

What of the batsmen? On paper, Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Collingwood, Prior, Wright, Broad, Swann - it's a good, strong, long batting line-up. But I predict - and it's a nasty prediction - that if England bat 8 innings this tour, Cook will be dismissed for less than 15 in at least three of them. In which case, Trott is your opener - maybe he can deal with it, but it's a different role.

KP will deliver some fine innings in the series, but he's still making his first test appearance in some time, and every bowler in the South African team wants his scalp more than anyone else's. It's vital that Strauss does what he did in the Ashes and leads from the front - England more than any other team take such great heart from his good starts, and you get the feeling that he's going to need a few tons if England are to have a chance of victory.

I can't get past the belief that Luke Wright is a major weak link - if the team's on a score of 350 when he comes in he might well make a quick 30 or 40 runs to boost the total, but he's not the man to rescue you when you're in trouble - in England are languishing on 180-4/5 you need a guy who can steady things down and bat through a session. Wright isn't that player. He's shown promise in the shorter format but I just don't think he's ready for Test - I think his batting will be exposed and his bowling preyed upon.

South Africa have had good news in that Jacques Kallis will play in the opening test. However, his role will be limited to batting, and the Proteas arguably would miss his prowess with the ball to a greater extent. In the same way that Collingwood will temper the English attack with economical and often wicket-taking spells, so Kallis steadies the South Africans. Steyn and Morkel will power in and deliver some frightening pace to the English, but if they start to go awry the English batsmen can fill their boots, and you need a miserly bowler to dry up the runs. Without Kallis, the South African bowlers could be either brilliant or distinctly lacking, and hopefully we'll see the big man fully fit in time for the second match.

South Africa's batting is superb - Ashwell Prince makes a return to the team for the Centurion match to open alongside the simply awesome Graeme Smith - those two are well capable of setting up a score of 280-0. Add AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla, JP Duminy and Mark Boucher to the team and you just sigh with pleasure.

Makhaya Ntini returns to make his 100th Test appearance for the home team, and perhaps he can keep the runs away from Cook long enough to pressure him into falling to Steyn at the other end.

England are unpredictable. So, in a way, are South Africa, particularly without Kallis holding the ball. However, I can't see England threatening to take the series, and if they got out of it at 1-1 they'd be over the moon. I'm going to go for a 2-0 win to South Africa over the four games; I think England will bat long enough to draw at least one if not two games, but I think they'll always struggle to take 20 wickets.

Rollercoaster Ride

English cricket is ridiculous.

This South Africa tour has been as nervously anticipated as the Ashes, but as the Test series draws closer, and the ODI matches bump to a close, we are left with yet another English series to squint at in confusion.

No one can deny that the current English team has a lot of talent - led by Andrew Strauss, in the form of his life, their batting includes a steady newcomer in Jonathan Trott, a scintillating Paul Collingwood, a returning Kevin Pietersen, and a host more. James Anderson and Stuart Broad are a good frontline attack, ably backed up by Tim Bresnan, who's proving himself as an international player, while Graeme Swann's off-spin is always a danger to opposing teams.

And yet, the team cannot seem to perform for two games in a row. Look at the Ashes - Cardiff, Lords, Edgbaston, Headingley, The Oval. The momentum swung terrifyingly to and fro like Mike Gatting on the end of a rope. Australia then ripped them to shreds in the ODIs. The English then took on the Champions Trophy and were unlikely semi-finalists. And now this.

South Africa have been shown up in this as much as England. Without Jacques Kallis, one of the finest cricketers in the world with bat and ball, they looked dangerously balanced to start with. Hashim Amla showed good form and deserved his opening spot alongside the wonderful Graeme Smith , but JP Duminy, although a fantastic player, isn't a typical number 4. AB de Villiers, arguably in the top 3 batsmen on the planet, was elevated to number 3, and then came the 5-6-7 combination of Alviro Petersen, Ryan McLaren, and Albie Morkel. Herschelle Gibbs was another absentee for the first match.

They made 250, which is a modest score in Centurion today, with Petersen Duminy and Amla contributing decent knocks. England were able to chase it down without too much problem, Jonathan Trott making 87 (he also bowled 7 overs for 21 runs) before Collingwood finished them off with a superb 5th one-day ton.

Once bitten, twice destructive. The second game displayed the potential of that South African side - Smith and Amla got the Proteas off to a hundred-run partnership before handing the reins to de Villiers, who cracked a rapid-fire century to boost South Africa to 354. England never believed a chase possible, with both openers falling for 24, and Collingwood's 86 would prove far too little in the end, with the away team falling 111 runs short.

But it wouldn't be an England tour without a turnaround. Having brought Gibbs into the squad but not started him, South Africa elected to bat in Port Elizabeth yesterday morning, and stumbled to a record-low home total of 119. James Anderson was simply fantastic, collecting career-best figures of 5-23, and showing a welcome return to his destructive pre-Ashes form. Trott and Strauss set the visitors off nicely and they completed the job efficiently.

So what happened? It's no coincidence that South Africa's triumphs on the tour have coincided with Graeme Smith having good innings, and their disasters have seen him make an early exit. It seems that without Kallis at the top to steady things, the team tends to panic after the captain falls. The lower order are fine when building on a big total and they can let loose, but put more responsibility on them and it's a different story. Ryan McLaren may call himself an all-rounder, but 11 runs in 4 innings is a stat that needs to change quickly.

South Africa have little choice but to bring back Gibbs for the next match; having brought him into the squad and then capitulated as they did it seems ridiculous to overlook him. The problem is that Kallis has not only weakened their batting, but their bowling as well. His 8 or 10 overs are extremely valuable as a steadying influence while Morkel, McLaren, and van der Merwe are bowling the rest. He hopes to be back for the Test series, but South Africa need to start finding options for when the big man can't make it. With him they appear almost impenetrable; without him there's a nerviness and precipicial element that they could do without.

So what's going to happen on Friday? I'm going to go the usual way - England dominated the last match, so South Africa will blow them away.