Act 3

After the disappointment of the Pakistan – West Indies debacle, we were treated to some decent cricket today in the second quarter-final between India and Australia. As expected, India managed to overcome the world champions, with no small thanks due to that man again. Yuvraj Singh continued his excellent form with bat and ball, taking two wickets before playing an important role at the crease after a couple of wickets had fallen. We saw Sachin Tendulkar pass 18,000 ODI runs, but perhaps the story of the match was Ricky Ponting. Coming into the match on no form, the Australian captain showed the world why he has achieved what he has – no one fights like Ponting – when his team needed him he delivered. His 104 might have been in a losing cause, but it should be remembered as one of his best.

India’s win sets up a mouth-watering semi-final against Pakistan, but that’s a story for another day. For now,let’s focus on the next quarter-final.

The third quarter-final was seen by many as the easiest to call. New Zealand, after doing their usual party trick of performing on the big stage, face many’s pre-tournament favourites. South Africa had little trouble in their Group games, barring their frightening collapse against Graeme Swann and Stuart Broad, and even managed to pull off a famous victory against India. Both teams have World Cup history, some of which can’t be spoken of until after the watershed, and you can be sure that both teams will be up for this match. The question is, will that be enough for one of them?

New Zealand are a decent ODI team. No more, no less. They have a couple of very good players, but there are a few who make up the numbers. Add to that the injury list of this tournament and they face a tough proposition tomorrow. Daniel Vettori, who missed their last couple of games with a dodgy knee, has promised to play, and his coolness, as much as his bowling, will be key to his team’s hopes. Whether he’s got the bat or ball in his hands, or is standing in the slips, he adds true class to this current New Zealand set-up. On a track where runs will be difficult to come by, a patient head will be needed, and the presence of Vettori will be a huge relief to the whole camp.

It’s tough to mention Brendon McCullum and patience in the same breath, but it would be a very valuable marriage if he can pull it off. How many times do we see the start of a NZ innings: Dot, SIX, OUT. McCullum has talent and power, but it only translates itself into a meaningful innings all too rarely. If he can keep his head, he has the ability to give his team a stunning start, with Martin Guptill well able to hold down the other end and score at close to a run a ball. With the suddenly in-form Ross Taylor still to come, a good start can lead to a commanding total.

They lack something in the bowling department however. I've always been a big fan of Tim Southee, and it's easy to forget how young he is - I think he's got a hell of a lot more to give, and could be a great bowler in the years to come. At the moment though, he's solid without being devastating, and without a Shane Bond in their line-up NZ look a little one-paced. Daniel Vettori is a great player, and Nathan McCullum has played his part, but I don't think players like Amla, Kallis and de Villiers will find him troubling.

New Zealand certainly deserve to be in the quarters, but they need every single player on top form if they're to take out a real heavyweight.

South Africa appear to have finally found a good balance. I still think that their tail begins a little early, but when you've got Amla, Kallis, AB and Duminy all batting well that's not a massive concern. In Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel they have a wonderful opening attack. Their three spinners have performed well so far, although I'm yet to be convinced about the true worth of Imran Tahir - yes he has taken wickets, but not always at crucial times and with great deliveries. He could be the real deal, but he needs a few more matches where he'll be up against the wall.

Graeme Smith is a worry - he's not scoring runs, and he's eating up deliveries. That said, he seems to be captaining the team extremely well, and in the pressure cooker that is a subcontinental World Cup, that's nearly worth a 50 per game. The team's only demise came against England, where some excellent bowling from England complemented a certain amount of laziness and then panic from the South African lower order. That match was largely cancelled out by their superb chase of India's total in the following game, and they won't let the English game affect their confidence.

I had South Africa backed for a long, long time before this World Cup, and it was only in the couple of weeks before that I switched my pick to Sri Lanka. Despite everything I've seen from them, I'm still not totally convinced by Graeme Smith's side, and we could be heading for a very interesting Sri Lanka - South Africa semi next week.

Tomorrow's game should come down to class, and South Africa eclipse New Zealand in that regard. Enough of their players are in good touch to cause New Zealand serious trouble, and unless half of the New Zealanders play a different game to the one they've played so far, they'll be left behind. Having Vettori back will be a huge boost for the Black Caps, but I can't see them beating what looks like a pretty solid side.

World Cup: Team By Team

India - Where better to start than with the hosts and favourites? They've got an endless batting line-up. Actually, it might end with Yusuf Pathan, because there are often no survivors. In Zaheer Khan, they have a man who's led lower bowlers to triumph before, and Munaf Patel and Sreesanth could well be those bowlers. Harbhajan Singh is world class. They have part-time spinners all over the park. A good captain in MS Dhoni. Virat Kohli is fast becoming my favourite player to watch. They've got it all. And yet....it's too much of a fairytale.

Prediction - Who would not love to see a Sri Lanka - India final? I think they will make the final, but I'll only give them a runners-up spot.

South Africa - The bottlers supreme. Their batting line-up looked shy and their tail pretty long against India, but Jacques Kallis back should make a difference in balance. With Hashim Amla at the top, you can nearly give them a 50-run lead. Will Johan Botha do the business with JP Duminy alongside him? They have a team of fantastic players - De Villiers can kill off a game when required, and Dale Steyn is the best bowler in the world. For a long time I've said they'll win this, but they really need every man in the team to perform, and I'm not sure that'll happen 3 games running.

Prediction - Semi-finals, maybe runners up.

Australia - They've won the last 3 - that's a good start. On the other hand, Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Hussey....etc aren't here. Ponting's hit a couple of 50s in the warm-up, and they beat a poor England 6-1, but I don't know. They've drawn the easier group - Canada instead of Ireland, New Zealand and Pakistan instead of South Africa and England, but I still think they'll have it tough. They should still make it through without too many problems, and from there on in it's a shootout. I don't think they have the bowlers - Lee did it for them Down Under - India's a different kettle of fish. Jason Krejza, well, good luck.

Prediction - Quarter-final exit.

New Zealand – They have a history of performing well in the big tournaments, and while they should make it to the quarters, they don’t have a the class to compete. Brendon McCullum’s IPL pedigree will serve them well, and in Ross Taylor and Martin Guptill they have two very fine batsmen, but I can’t see them troubling the big teams. They’re too close to a batting collapse, even with the experience of Scott Styris and Jacob Oram in as props. Daniel Vettori is a world-class spinner, but he can’t do it all on his own, and there are a couple of untested young men in the attack who could be taken to the cleaners.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit, but watch Martin Guptill make some runs first – he’s one for the future.

Sri Lanka - Here we go. Tilikaratne Dilshan and Upul Tharanga to open. Sangakkara at 3. Mahela at 4. Samarweera at 5 before maybe Matthews at 6. That all adds up to a million runs - who's going to defend them? Only a man with 590-odd ODI wickets and the most terrifying paceman you can see coming at you. How can Lasith Malinga work? No one really knows - he shouldn't be hitting line and length but he does. 4 wickets in 4 balls 4 years ago - I smell a hat-trick again. This is a truly class team. They showed great composure chasing the West Indies' total of 280 in the warm-up, after bowling well to keep them to that number. Sangakkara is a canny captain with a great team behind him.

Prediction - Blasted away from victory last year by Adam Gilchrist, I see them going one better here. 15 years on from their last triumph, the last team to win it before Australia are set to do it again. Champions.

Pakistan – It’s foolish to write them off – they can win anything from a standing start. They actually have some ok form coming into this, and plenty of players have put their hands up. Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammed Hafeez are an exciting opening pair, and Hafeez has shown himself to be a very useful second spinner behind Saeed Ajmal. Shoaib Akhtar is bowling well, as is Wahab Riaz, and Umar Gul could get into any ODI side he wanted. Misbah-ul-Haq has faced down his critics by producing some lovely ODI innings recently, including a run-a-ball century against Bangladesh in the warm-ups. If he can hold down one end and allow Afridi and Razzaq to tee off from the other side there could be some big scores. The big question marks are over the Akmal brothers – Umar Akmal’s stunning start to his career has ground to a halt – he needs to build a couple of innings to get his confidence back – and Kamran needs some runs now he’s taken the gloves back from the third brother, Adnan.

Prediction: Realistically need a top-two finish in the group to avoid India and South Africa in the quarters, but I think they’ll manage that ahead of Australia. Semi-finalists, and from there, who knows?

England - I'm sure I'll get flak for this, but they're not a great ODI side. People brushed aside the 6-1 to Australia, and fair enough, but the focus was on the absentee bowlers. The problem was the misfiring batsmen. KP must perform, as must Strauss. Trott must speed up. Prior must get runs. The opening partnership has changed again, with KP promoted. Will it work better than the last 20? Who knows? Without Eoin Morgan, the team lacks the innovation required to win this tournament. Collingwood, Bopara and Yardy aren't going to finish a game like the Irishman. England need more planning for this, starting with bringing Alistair Cook into the ODI game. Do they not watch him for Essex?

Prediction - Quarter-final Exit.

Bangladesh – A lot has been made of this team, and not without cause. Shakib al-Hasan has prove himself to be able to manage the captaincy alongside being a key with both bat and ball. Tamim Iqbal is one of the best openers in ODI cricket. Mahmudullah, Mushfiqur Rahim Juanid SIddique and more runs to a solid batting line-up, and with several solid spinners in the team they can cause trouble to any batting line-up. They’re most often criticized for a lack of a good pace attack – this should be less important in the subcontinent, although Rubel Hossain showed some good form against Pakistan in the warm-up.

Prediction – Expect some upsets from this still very young team. I have a sneaky feeling that they’ll qualify from the group stages, but that could leave them facing Sri Lanka in the quarters, which is where, for me, they bow out.

West Indies – Where to start? What a frustrating team. Chris Gayle, Shiv Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo, Kieron Pollard, Darren Sammy. That’s a team that should produce fireworks every time it goes out. Unfortunately, 50% of the time it’s a damp squib. They are undoubtedly going to have some big performances, led by the big man himself, but that’s the problem. Get Chris Gayle out early, and you should win. Against Sri Lanka in the warm-up, Gayle fell after a quick 50 and the run rate plummeted. Pollard’s job is to provide a flurry at the end, but that’s not such an easy task if the score’s 100 for 5. The bowlers are interesting – Sammy and Kemar Roach are a pair I’d like to see open, but I just don’t think that Nikita Millar and Sulieman Benn are penetrative enough in India. To be fair to him, Benn took 3 and only gave 4 an over to Sri Lanka, but he doesn’t have the consistency.

Prediction – I think they’ll beat England in the group stage, but still fail to qualify. If Gayle can be knocked over early, Bangladesh and Ireland have a great chance of taking the Caribbean scalp.

Ireland – Expect this preview to be heaped full of bias. Ireland are a very good team. They played a couple of very solid warm-up games, including a victory over Zimbabwe without using captain William Porterfield and Sussex opener Ed Joyce, arguably their two best batsmen. Kevin O’Brien showed great maturity alongside old hand Andre Botha in rebuilding after early wickets. Historically, the batting has been our problem – suddenly there are quite a few men with form. With Joyce at 3, we then have to choose from Botha, the O’Brien boys, Gary Wilson, Andrew White, Alex Cusack and John Mooney for our next four. Boyd Rankin and the ever-reliable Trent Johnston are a solid opening pair, and young George Dockrell has bowled tidily if not brilliantly so far. The main problem against Zimbabwe was conceding a huge number of runs off the last 10 overs – our death bowling has never been strong, and that’s where Trent needs a good partner once the Batting Powerplay is taken.

Prediction – Getting out of the group is a huge task – I expect a thumping from South Africa and India, but every other team is beatable. I would expect them to win maybe two games, but to get all the results to get through in such a short space might just prove too much. But I’m not going to type a nailed-on prediction…..